| Quick Answer: With oil above $100 a barrel, rising tensions between the US and Iran have put the Strait of Hormuz at risk — the narrow waterway through which around 20% of the world’s oil passes. Brent crude hit $100.44 a barrel on 9 September 2026, its highest point since July, after reports of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf. Analysts at Goldman Sachs say prices could climb past $120 a barrel if the disruption drags on. |
If you’ve filled up your car recently, you already know something’s changed. Petrol in the US just hit a record high over the Labor Day weekend, and the reason traces straight back to the price of crude oil. On 9 September 2026, Brent crude — the benchmark used to price most of the world’s oil — jumped above $100 a barrel for the first time since July. That’s not a small move. It’s a signal that something serious is happening in the oil market, and it’s worth understanding exactly what and why.
What’s Pushing Oil Above $100 a Barrel?
The short answer is conflict. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have flared up again, and this time it’s affecting shipping. Iran has reportedly attacked vessels in the Gulf, including oil tankers, and warned ships near Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports to stay clear. Iran-backed groups have also targeted energy sites in Saudi Arabia, including a refinery that processes 400,000 barrels a day.
None of this is happening in a random spot on the map. It’s near the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman that about one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply passes through. When traders just suspect that it might be blocked or disrupted, they price it in immediately — well before any oil tankers are stopped.
Why Does a Threat Move Prices So Fast?
Both oil exchanges are focused on future prospects rather than the present or even the near future. Any change in the supply situation a month or two from now will already have an impact on the current prices. So if there is a realistic possibility that the fifth of the world’s oil supplies will be temporarily unavailable for a short while, buyers will stock up on oil, and sellers will want to sell it at higher prices. This explains the more than two and a half percent jump in the price of Brent crude oil over the course of several hours.
Could Oil Go Even Higher Than $100?
Quite possibly, indeed. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Energy Research have said that Brent could well pass $120 a barrel if Gulf oil exports fail to recover in coming months. Their usual assumption is that producers will adapt – routing oil via other outlets and using more pipelines – and that prices will settle down. The more the squeeze intensifies, the more that cosy assumption looks increasingly shaky.
It helps to remember that oil has swung wildly before. Back in the 1970s, a Middle East oil embargo triggered a shock that reshaped how the world thought about energy security. Prices later crashed in the 1980s when supply outpaced demand. Oil rarely stays still for long — it moves hard in both directions depending on supply, demand, and, very often, geopolitics.
What This Means for Your Wallet
Higher crude oil prices do not remain confined to financial markets, but are reflected at the pump within days. As of early September 2026, the national average gasoline price in the United States is reaching close to $4 a gallon, a record for the Labor Day period, beating the previous high set back in 2012. Diesel has climbed even faster, passing $5 a gallon, with California and a few other states already topping $7 a gallon.
According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, the average American household has already spent more than $650 more in fuel costs since prices started climbing, with that figure expected to approach $1,000 as of the end of autumn if the price of gasoline remains at the current level.
What Can You Actually Do About It?
You can’t control global oil markets, but a few practical steps can soften the impact:
- Compare prices before you fill up. Apps like GasBuddy and AAA show real-time petrol prices nearby, and the difference between stations can be surprisingly large.
- Use a card with fuel rewards. Some credit cards offer cashback or points specifically on petrol purchases.
- Combine errands into fewer trips. Sounds basic, but it genuinely cuts fuel use when prices are this high.
- Watch the seasonal switch. Petrol usually gets a little cheaper once refineries shift to winter-blend fuel, which can offer some relief even if crude stays high.
The Bottom Line
Oil crossed above $100 a barrel because of a real, escalating conflict near one of the world’s most important shipping routes, not because of a random market swing. Whether it climbs toward $120 depends greatly on how that conflict is resolved in the coming days. Either way, the price is already being seen at gas stations around the country, so it’s worth remembering to keep an eye on news coming from the Gulf, as well as your own gas tank.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil prices cross $100 a barrel in September 2026?
Oil crossed $100 a barrel after Iran reportedly attacked oil tankers and warned ships near the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears that a major share of global oil supply could be disrupted.
What is the Strait of Hormuz, and why does it matter for oil prices?
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that around 20% of the world’s daily oil supply passes through. Any threat to shipping there tends to push oil prices up quickly.
Could oil prices reach $120 a barrel?
Analysts at Goldman Sachs say it’s a realistic possibility if oil exports through the Gulf remain disrupted for several months rather than recovering quickly.
How does a higher oil price affect petrol prices?
Crude oil is the main ingredient in petrol, so when the price of crude rises, fuel prices at the pump typically follow within days or weeks.
Is $100 oil a record high?
No. Oil has traded well above $100 a barrel before, including highs near $140 in 2008 and above $120 in 2022. The current level is high by recent standards but not an all-time record.
